Powering the future - one year until Scottish elections

A Critical Moment for the Renewable Energy and Infrastructure Sectors

As Scotland approaches the 2026 Scottish Parliamentary election, the political landscape is highly dynamic, with significant implications for the renewable energy and infrastructure sectors. The policies of the next government will shape Scotland’s energy strategy, influence investment flows, and determine the pace of its transition to a net-zero economy.

Current Polling Trends

Recent polling indicates that the Scottish National Party (SNP) remains in the lead with 31–35% of the vote. Scottish Labour follows with 20–28%, while the Scottish Conservatives are polling between 12% and 15%. Reform UK has also made considerable gains, polling 17–18% and overtaking the Conservatives in some areas.

This fragmentation among unionist parties could enable the SNP, particularly if they continue their cooperation with the Scottish Greens (polling between 4% and 9%), to retain a majority. Labour faces significant challenges, with declining support among older voters and forecasts suggesting their weakest Holyrood result to date.

Implications for Renewable Energy Policy

The SNP has historically prioritised renewable energy development. Their policy framework includes achieving 50% of total energy consumption from renewables by 2030 and reaching net-zero emissions by 2045. Programmes such as Energy Transition Scotland aim to transform traditional energy centres like Aberdeen into hubs for renewable innovation, attracting global investment and supporting economic diversification.

The renewable sector already makes a major contribution to Scotland’s economy, supporting over 42,000 jobs and generating more than £10 billion in annual output. The SNP’s approach also emphasises a “just transition”, ensuring that workers from carbon-intensive industries are reskilled for the green economy. Investments in emerging technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture further position Scotland to maintain its competitive edge globally.

Despite notable progress, challenges persist. Regulatory complexity and delays continue to threaten project timelines. While the SNP has pledged to streamline planning processes, ongoing focus will be needed to sustain momentum and investor confidence.

Potential Policy Shifts Under Labour

If Labour were to form the next Scottish government, Scotland’s renewable strategy would likely maintain similar environmental objectives but differ in delivery. Would Scottish Labour align with Westminster? Labour emphasises community ownership and ensuring that the benefits of renewables are shared more widely.

A key Labour initiative is the establishment of GB Energy, a publicly-owned company with its headquarters in Aberdeen. Its goal is to drive investment in renewable projects, create skilled jobs, and lower energy costs. However, concerns remain around funding certainty, delivery timelines, and the measurable impact on consumers in the near term.

Labour also prioritises social inclusion, proposing measures to tackle energy poverty and expand access to renewable technologies for low-income households. Additionally, there is a strong focus on developing green skills and workforce training through partnerships with industry and educational institutions. 

Potential Impacts on Energy and Infrastructure Delivery

The election outcome could significantly impact how energy and infrastructure projects are delivered. An SNP-led government would likely prioritise policy continuity, supporting large-scale renewable generation, hydrogen infrastructure, carbon capture initiatives, and offshore wind expansion. This would provide investors and developers with a higher degree of policy certainty, maintaining Scotland’s attractiveness as a destination for energy transition capital.

In contrast, a Labour-led government may bring changes to delivery models. Greater state involvement through GB Energy and a focus on community ownership could alter risk-sharing dynamics and influence the role of the private sector in major infrastructure projects.

Planning and permitting processes could also shift. Labour’s emphasis on local benefits and public engagement may introduce extended consultation periods, potentially lengthening project approval timelines. Developers should prepare for a possible adjustment in stakeholder engagement strategies and project lifecycle expectations.

A Key Moment for Devolution and National Synergy

A victory for the Scottish Labour Party in the election could bring greater alignment with the current Westminster government. While there are sometimes differences between Scottish (and Welsh) Labour and their counterparts in Westminster, the alignment between all three Labour governments would be stronger than it is today. This synergy could help advance the UK-wide ambitions around GB Energy and planning reform, potentially overcoming some of the challenges posed by devolution. A unified Labour government in Scotland, Wales, and Westminster could lead to more cohesive energy and infrastructure policies, with Scotland playing a central role in shaping the future of renewable energy and climate policy.

Energy and infrastructure stakeholders will need to closely monitor these dynamics in the run-up to the 2026 election, as the policies of a Labour-led government in all three nations could present both opportunities and challenges for large-scale energy projects.

Conclusion

The 2026 Scottish election represents a defining opportunity for the country’s renewable energy and infrastructure sectors. The outcome will influence Scotland’s ability to achieve climate targets, attract investment, deliver major projects, and build a resilient, future-ready economy. For investors, developers, and businesses, understanding and preparing for the shifting policy environment will be crucial in navigating Scotland’s next phase of energy transition.